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Also can keep high growth in China's real estate market growth? Domestic brokerage, China securities recently published research reports, with income growth of central down pattern, return to normal monetary growth, and income imbalances correct, rate decline is the basic trend of expansion, industry total demand will gradually replace the investment demand from live sex become key determinants of price changes.
China macro and securities chief economist ba shusong, a senior researcher at Yang is brought in the report points out, residential property, as a kind of both investment and consumption of durable goods, its price not only depends on the current supply and demand, also depends on the expected marginal gap between demand and potential supply. And expected demand for revenue growth, monetary conditions reflect sensitivity than potential supply and regulation policy of adjusting speed, so that the marginal gap often exists, and easy to burst in a short time.
"If the regulation is just focus on the current supply and demand, and can not effectively control demand forecast or expand the potential supply, so the effect of the regulation is often very limited, and even as home prices upward,cheap oakleys." According to the report. Ba shusong also a researcher at the institute of finance development research center under the state council.
According to the report, the growth in wealth is the basic driving force of the expected demand,cheap oakley sunglasses, rising wealth channel,oakley sunglasses sale, regulation can only will demand temporarily suppressed, and delay the release, and the distribution of wealth imbalance will push up the proportion of investment to buy; Monetary expansion and low interest rates,replica oakley sunglasses, is one of the important driving force to make house prices deviating from the trend; Residential land supply elasticity is low, and the residential potential supply ability is difficult to follow the market automatically adjust.
The above three aspects constitute of China real estate regulation and control efficiency. But the report also said, overall growth and support over the past 15 years the real estate market trend upward economic driver has structural changes.
On the one hand, the income growth rate of decline, return to normal monetary expansion growth, and gradually correct the imbalance of income distribution pattern could mean real estate demand trend of the rapid expansion in the medium to longer term will be easing, the investment demand will tend to decrease; the proportion of Growth, on the other hand, within the center of gravity of the moving, the differentiation of the urban growth and population suburbanization means individual regional and urban growth will quickly in the industry average level.
However, the amount of land supply constraints and structural change means that the price trend is still rising, and with the difficulty growing.
According to this trend, the report argues that China's property market growth in the future will fall. As slowing growth in the coastal cities and inland growth center of gravity, represented by Beijing, Shanghai and shenzhen's three big areas will tend to decline, the market share in chongqing, chengdu, wuhan, changsha, hefei as a representative of central city in the middle reach of Yangtze river will become the industry's fastest-growing places. Focus on the five urban areas leading will still get rapid growth.
Market concentration and urban agriculture will provide basic support for the scale expansion of enterprises, access to above the industry average growth rate. As China's real estate market gradually matures, urban housing stock in the flow rate and the secondary market of enhancement is the trend of The Times.
In China's real estate industry association, vice chairman zhu also said that in the near future golden decade of real estate industry has gradually gone, and the next 10 years the industry will enter a steady development. Association according to the report, due to the development of real estate industry reliance on land is a scarce resource, and normalization of government regulation on the real estate market, real estate development to high-growth era or an unstoppable trend. Followed by improving the industry concentration and corporate profits generally narrowed, real estate enterprise competition will be increasingly fierce.