Options market prices suggests that the pound against the dollar is expected to regain losses. If this week the British budget of mission of the bank of England policy adjustments, could quicken the pound fell to a four-year low.
Sterling is the worst performing major currency after the yen this year,cheap oakley sunglasses, constantly faced relentless selling pressure. Sterling against the us dollar has depreciated by 7%, dropped 5.5% against the euro, because of the UK economy recession has three degrees, and is likely to loose monetary policy further.
Measure investors to bet on a sterling is bullish or bearish options of demand risk reversals,fake oakley sunglasses, a month, according to bias the pound's view is the strongest since July last year.
"The risk reversals show investors more bearish on GBP/usd," societe generale options strategist Olivier said Korber. "Lower economic growth forecasts would prompt the bank of England monetary policy".
Traders had alleged that hedge funds put options against sterling, with stable demand, if the pound fell to $1.45 in three months will be able to make money. Most Banks to pound at the end of the forecast level of even lower.
Pounds, of course, since the low of $1.4832 hit last week 33 months after slight rebound,fake oakley sunglasses. Traders said this is because betting on a cycle option pounds will from around $1.5120 to $1.53 on Tuesday, resulting in some of the demand.
But analysts believe that due to the struggling to cope with economic growth close to stagnant situation, and face a further spending cuts, pound any rally will be temporary, and is an opportunity to sell.
In this adverse situation, sterling performance is expected to miss the dollar economic recovery, such as the country's currency.
Profit taking * * * *
Pound recovered slightly last week, pound net short positions held by speculators also rose to the highest since the end of 2011. This extreme level of the position, some people take profits, thus push sterling rose.
Investors expected, the federal reserve (FED/the FED) will in this week's policy meeting, insisted that could push the dollar lower ultra-loose monetary policy. This also helps to sterling.
Pounds to boost exports in the end, has always advocated down last week, the bank of England governor mervyn king has attitude shift, said sterling plunged after the valuation is reasonable.
Sterling rose further catalyst may be the bank's policy meeting minutes from the scheduled for Wednesday.
If for sterling weakness push up import prices and further stimulating inflation worries, causes a decline in the number of decision makers support to expand the scale of asset purchases, the pound is likely to rise.
, analysts say investors are willing to through the selling of the pound against the dollar method to express negative on Britain's attitude, rather than sell sterling against the euro. They said to him, the outlook for the euro zone recession, Cyprus, and the spread of risk concerns, could bring pressure on the euro against the pound.
Since February,discount oakley sunglasses, the spread between two-year German government bonds and the bonds narrowed, but the two-year Treasury debt and the debt spreads to the widest level since early November, favouring the dollar assets.
"Fundamentally, we have no reason to buy sterling," RMG Wealth Management consultant Howard Jones said. He thinks that should buy dollars. "For long-term investors, as long as the pound rose to 1.50-1.60 area in the middle of the level, is selling opportunity."
Morgan Stanley cut sterling exchange rate forecast on Monday, and warned that Britain can occur at the same time slowing growth and rising inflation.
"Inflation expectations rise, makes the G10 (G10) of the countries most affected by negative real interest rates, weakened the pounds. We've already cut, is expected by the end of 2013 the pound fell to $1.43, will drop to $1.41 at the end of 2014."
2013年3月20日星期三
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